The level of success of this mission largely hinges on NASA and its international partners agreeing to lease/sell the ISS to our group. In the last month, NASA and Russia jointly announced the possibility to extend the life of the ISS until 2028 (Clark, 2017). This would marginally reduce the level of success of the project; it merely delays the implementation of our plan. If NASA and its international partners decide to extend the ISS mission beyond 2028, our group would have no other choice but to purchase Bigelow modules or some sort of alternative structure. Without the option of utilizing the ISS the chance of successfully establishing a refueling station are greatly reduced. The added expense of purchasing and launching all the infrastructure, hardware, and spacecraft would be significantly increased. Without committed, patient partners and investors willing to pursue multiple avenues to creating a refueling station and space mining venture it will not be feasible to maintain this project.
In the absence of the ISS and the hardware/tools on board, LEO Speedwagon would be forced to purchase/manufacture tools capable of refueling spacecraft and satellites in orbit. The RRM capability currently on the ISS would need to be replaced to perform the servicing tasks such as cutting and peeling back protective thermal blankets, unscrewing caps, turning valves, transferring fluid, inspection, and coolant replenishment. Without this capability LEO Speedwagon would be forced to change part of is acquisition strategy. A tool that mimics RRM would need to be designed, manufactured, and tested; all aspects that were accomplished by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center before deployed on the ISS.
In addition, President Trump’s 2018 Budget Proposal eliminates funding for NASA’s ARM proposal (NASA, 2017). Without ARM the ability to demonstrate a proof of concept of the extraction process becomes more complicated. Our group had planned on drafting an MoU/MoA with NASA to conduct water ice/hydrated mineral extraction on the “boulder” after NASA had completed its mission objectives. This arrangement would allow LEO Speedwagon the ability to conduct its demonstration of technology closer to Earth, in cislunar space, in order to reduce costs and save time. Now that ARM is effectively cancelled, LEO Speedwagon will have to implement one of our alternate plans to demonstrate the extraction process. This means our mining spacecraft will have to venture farther away from our Earth-based operations center to demonstrate the extraction process. Successful completion of the technology demonstration will require our prospecting spacecraft to also move deeper into space to verify an alternate asteroid candidate has enough subsurface water ice to be collected. The time delay involved due to the greater distances could dissuade some partners and investors from continuing their participation with this project. This will also decrease the chances of LEO Speedwagon’s success as financial backing could be reduced below tolerable limits.
In summary, if the entire acquisition and management plans are accomplished as written in this project the chances of success are good. Alternatively, as more pieces of LEO Speedwagon’s plan do not materialize the chances of success progressively reduce. In reality, the chances of success in a mega project such as LEO Speedwagon are not promising. This does not mean this group should not pursue such an endeavor. This is a worthwhile project and if realized has the potential to be the catalyst for a sustainable space economy and an enabler for deep space exploration.
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